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Wednesday, June 01, 2005

We Hinda CAFTA

Heh. Hm. Indeed.

OK, we have a serious tactical problem in the Western hemisphere, which is caused by the convergence of two bullet points:
*Venezuela provides 11.8% of our oil imports. (Link is to enemy propagandist- ie, more informational than US MSM)
*Venezuela is controlled by an anti-American socialist thug who is consolidating his power, building up his military, and forming an alliance with Cuba even as I type. Oh, and he just happens to be buying Migs.

If Chavez decides to, say, invade Brazil (unlikely), there's not much we can do about it without cutting off our oil supply. Even if our first military priority were to capture the oil rigs, and this could be accomplished quickly, oil trading and its effect on other markets would make Black Monday look like Palm Sunday.

Chavez doesn't seem too expansionist right now. He isn't a communist idealist, so there is no insane desire to cover the Earth in glorious revolution. He is still busy building up his domestic resources, using the high oil revenues of the past couple of years. Still, power is good, territory and subjects are good. If he were expansionist, which might not be wise so close to the US, he shares a border with the divided, weakened, and "resource rich" Columbia. Columbia is divided, by the way, in part by marxist rebels who would love to get their hands on old Venezuelan rifles.

Socialist thug + Marxist rebels + Former CCCR + communist Cuba = problem for Columbia.

Columbia is geographically similar in size to Venezuela, which usually causes tension between neighbor countries. Columbia has a little oil and access to the Pacific. Venezuela currently wants to sell to China, a major competitor with the US for oil supplies, but has no access to the Pacific. Access to the Chinese oil market would allow Venezuela to seriously threaten cutting off its supply to the US.

Well, let's not worry about specific scenarios. Let's worry about an unfriendly regime with the ability to wreak havoc in our economy, even if not as seriously as my Black Monday rhetoric.

What defeats tyranny? Liberty. What defeats socialist thugs? Capitalism. Massive bombing campaigns and assassinations also help.

Enter, stage right, the CAFTA. On strictly economic principles, CAFTA is good for the coutries it embraces in its warm, mother-like contractual wording. It will put one more stone on the cairn of our textile industry. More importantly, free trade is the way capitalist countries spread hegemony. While the countries of central and south America have been relegated to the Third World, we have done nothing for a hundred years except shield them with the Monroe Doctrine and involve them in a couple wars. Even then, they were the last ones picked for the team. Poor little guys.

If we eliminate the anarchy and poverty, we eliminate the petty despots. Free trade does this, because any company that doesn't emulate the US cannot compete with the US. When the economy looks like ours, the social and political structure will begin to resemble ours as well.

What does this have to do with Venezuela? Well, CAFTA, if passed, will spread US power closer to the drop zone I mean Venezuela.

The alliance with Cuba needs to be severed, preferably by destroying the regime in Cuba. While waiting for Fidel to die was a good strategy, the nationalised health care in Cuba appears to be successful in granting him immortality. We need to make an open offer of "economic incentives" -open trade- to the next regime. We need to make that offer now. Although Fidel's enemies haven't had success in rising up so far, there is no harm in making the offer. If economic incentives are linked to the removal of Fidel and to democratic reforms, it will make the transition to a new government more orderly, and give us a little influence over the direction it takes. At the very least, we will be able to end the Cuba-Venezuela Axis of Duh.

Or we could just overthrow Chavez. Again. I prefer the vision of a new world order based on democratic free trade, but hey, whatever sinks your ship.

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